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Trade by Evidence

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Break-even & Cost Calculator

Backtest looks good, but live results are different? For forex, gold and index traders, a small gross edge can disappear into round-trip costs. Check that arithmetic before changing another filter. This calculator runs in your browser. No cookies, uploads or browser storage. Trade inputs never leave the browser. We count anonymous page views with Cloudflare Web Analytics (cookieless, aggregate visit stats).

Start with a worked example

These are invented scenarios, not gold quotes, broker fees, observed performance or prop-firm rules. Every amount uses a fixed R unit. Load a preset, then replace the assumptions.

Gold scenario: 45% wins, 1.5R winners, 1R losers and 0.15R all-in cost. No XAUUSD tick, pip or contract-size conversion is implied.

Cost includes spread, commission and slippage not already included in the gross win/loss figures. Enter the combined round-trip amount, not a one-sided charge. Do not subtract the same cost twice. No pips-to-currency conversion is performed.

What the numbers mean

Let p be win rate as a decimal, W the average gross win, L the positive average gross loss, C the average all-in cost per completed trade and N monthly completed trades.

A worked example

At 45% wins, 1.5R average win and 1R average loss: 0.45 × 1.5 − 0.55 × 1 = 0.125R before costs. A 0.15R round-trip cost changes this to −0.025R per trade. At 100 trades the cost drag is 15R; the monthly expectancy illustration is −2.5R. Break-even requires a 46% win rate under the same assumptions.

Your export is the starting point, not proof

MT5 and TradingView exports can use different columns and cost definitions. Check what your file actually contains before entering averages. A closed-trade summary cannot detect repainting, reconstruct intratrade equity, certify a prop challenge or establish that an optimized backtest is free of overfitting.

Where this model stops

Use the same fixed R definition or currency for all amounts. Currency mode does not convert currencies. The model assumes comparable trades, two outcomes and one average cost; it does not model scratches separately, changing position size, compounding, funding, taxes, dependence between trades or uncertainty in your inputs. Include financing in your cost assumption if relevant. If your figures are already net of all costs, enter zero additional cost.

A positive output does not prove a strategy works. An observed win rate and average payoff can change. No historical or live performance is presented. Educational arithmetic only, not investment advice, a recommendation or a forecast. Trading can result in loss.

The calculator is free to use without email. About Trade by Evidence.

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What does your own export already include?

Pick one completed trade and mark its P&L gross or net before adding costs. This free calculator uses hypothetical summary inputs, not a file import or an uncertainty estimate.

For the planned offline file workflow: check your exact documented layout. The Edge on Trial Checker is planned at $27 one-time, no subscription. Join the launch list (max. 3 emails) if that fits your workflow. Orders and demo access are not open.